ACIC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACIC - American Coastal Insurance Corporation Common Stock
$11.25
-0.06 (-0.53%)
▼
5d:
-0.44%
30d:
-2.51%
90d:
-9.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACIC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACIC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.80
Based on 4.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.19
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACIC is currently trading at $11.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.09 to $11.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACIC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+24.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACIC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+24.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$11.09 -
$11.55
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.4% below Wall St target ($14.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.09 -
$11.55
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.85
(7.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.02
Resistance Level
$11.51
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.28
Wall Street Target
$14.00
(+24.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-23.5%
Profit Margin
31.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.98
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$10.72
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$10.46
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$11.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.4%)
$39.28
(+249%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 4.4%)
$12.80
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 4.4%)
$10.88
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.15
Bull Case
$8.74
(-23%)
Analyst growth -28.1%, PE expands to 5.7
Base Case
$7.95
(-30%)
Market implied -28.1%, PE stable at 5.1
Bear Case
$7.52
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 7.8
Stabilization Target:
$12.05
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 7:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACIC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kern Michael Davis
BUY
1400 shares
2026-03-04
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