ADEA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADEA - Adeia Inc. Common Stock
$24.19
-0.17 (-0.70%)
▼
5d:
+4.22%
30d:
+16.02%
90d:
+37.44%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ADEA is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $20 2026-04-17 with 14 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADEA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADEA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.42
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.54
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADEA is currently trading at $24.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.59 to $23.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (12.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.68, while resistance sits at $26.09.
Market Sentiment: ADEA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.00 (+36.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.68, while resistance sits at $26.09.
Market Sentiment: ADEA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.00 (+36.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$19.59 -
$23.77
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.4% below Wall St target ($33.00)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 8.0% growth expectation is conservative given 107% recent growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.59 -
$23.77
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.68
Resistance Level
$26.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.16
Wall Street Target
$33.00
(+36.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
106.7%
Profit Margin
25.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.0% premium
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 12.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.13
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$28.22
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$30.47
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.13
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.2%)
$37.94
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 4.2%)
$27.37
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 4.2%)
$21.68
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.99
Bull Case
$38.60
(+58%)
Analyst growth 51.2%, PE expands to 25.8
Base Case
$35.09
(+43%)
Market implied 51.2%, PE stable at 23.4
Bear Case
$15.78
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADEA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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