ADT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADT - ADT Inc.
$8.00
-0.08 (-0.99%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
24d
Get Alerted When ADT Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.58
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.57
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADT is currently trading at $8.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.02 to $8.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.48 (+18.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.48 (+18.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$8.02 -
$8.21
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($9.48)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.02 -
$8.21
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.92
Resistance Level
$8.28
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.46
Wall Street Target
$9.48
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.7%
Profit Margin
12.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.98
(0%)
2-Year Target
$7.95
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$7.93
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$7.97
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.3%)
$26.04
(+226%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 7.3%)
$9.87
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 7.3%)
$8.39
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.73
Bull Case
$11.33
(+42%)
Analyst growth 29.6%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$10.30
(+29%)
Market implied 29.6%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$5.41
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$8.04
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 4:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ADT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Security & Protection Services Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Security & Protection Services by analyst ratings.
