ADT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADT - ADT Inc.
$6.49
0.03 (0.39%)
▲
5d:
-1.29%
30d:
-19.14%
90d:
-20.33%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.21
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.34
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADT is currently trading at $6.49, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.35 to $7.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (8.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.10 (+25.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.10 (+25.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$6.35 -
$7.53
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.4% below Wall St target ($8.10)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.35 -
$7.53
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.43
Resistance Level
$6.78
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.73
Wall Street Target
$8.10
(+25.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.0%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 8.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.07
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$5.71
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$5.37
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$6.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.2%)
$26.46
(+310%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 7.2%)
$7.95
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 7.2%)
$6.76
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.68
Bull Case
$10.11
(+54%)
Analyst growth 41.2%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$9.19
(+40%)
Market implied 41.2%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$4.43
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 8.1
Stabilization Target:
$7.78
(+20.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David A Scott
BUY
7300 shares
2026-03-05
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