MSA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSA - Mine Safety Incorporated
$174.69
2.21 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
+1.62%
30d:
+5.3%
90d:
-13.98%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MSA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$256.79
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$159.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSA is currently trading at $174.69, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $166.67 to $172.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.0) is in line with its historical norms (19.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $178.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $205.71 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $178.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $205.71 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$166.67 -
$172.78
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($205.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$166.67 -
$172.78
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$164.37
Resistance Level
$178.76
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.01
Wall Street Target
$205.71
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 19.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$170.85
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$167.09
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$163.41
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$174.23
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 9.3%)
$278.98
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 9.3%)
$227.94
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$193.75
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.42
Bull Case
$248.05
(+42%)
Analyst growth 30.7%, PE expands to 25.6
Base Case
$225.50
(+29%)
Market implied 30.7%, PE stable at 23.3
Bear Case
$117.29
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.0 to 19.2
Stabilization Target:
$186.26
(+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jonathan D Buck
SELL
1100 shares
2026-02-17
Jonathan D Buck
SELL
333 shares
2025-11-25
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2025-11-20
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