ALLE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALLE - Allegion Public Limited Company
$134.37
-2.44 (-1.78%)
▼
5d:
-0.83%
30d:
-8.15%
90d:
-25.25%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ALLE is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $155 2026-06-18 with 8 OI. Call ratio: 77% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALLE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALLE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$221.64
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$137.62
2.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALLE is currently trading at $134.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $137.97 to $146.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.1) compared to its historical average (17.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $131.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALLE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $167.58 (+24.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $131.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALLE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $167.58 (+24.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$137.97 -
$146.71
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALLE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.7% below Wall St target ($167.58)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$137.97 -
$146.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$131.22
Resistance Level
$149.26
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.08
Wall Street Target
$167.58
(+24.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 17.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.31
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$118.73
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$111.61
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$134.77
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 8.9%)
$270.08
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 8.9%)
$173.30
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 8.9%)
$147.30
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.32
Bull Case
$196.23
(+46%)
Analyst growth 30.4%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$178.39
(+33%)
Market implied 30.4%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$93.03
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 17.0
Stabilization Target:
$162.26
(+20.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 10, 2026 3:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALLE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sue Main
BUY
2000 shares
2026-03-11
Steven Mizell
SELL
1000 shares
2026-02-19
Steven Mizell
SELL
400 shares
2026-02-18
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