NSSC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NSSC - Napco Security Technologies, Inc
$36.22
-1.30 (-3.46%)
▼
5d:
-11.27%
30d:
-18.95%
90d:
-17.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NSSC is down 11.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NSSC is down 11.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.07
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NSSC is currently trading at $36.22, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.94 to $46.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.4) compared to its historical average (28.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSSC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.33 (+39.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSSC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.33 (+39.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.94 -
$46.03
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 39.0% below Wall St target ($50.33)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.3% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.94 -
$46.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.00
Resistance Level
$46.52
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.36
Wall Street Target
$50.33
(+39.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 28.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.54
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$31.06
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$28.76
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→28)
$36.27
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.7%)
$46.55
(+29%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$45.95
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 8.7%)
$39.06
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$64.91
(+79%)
Analyst growth 57.3%, PE expands to 40.1
Base Case
$59.01
(+63%)
Market implied 57.3%, PE stable at 36.4
Bear Case
$25.51
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.4 to 28.2
Stabilization Target:
$45.68
(+26.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 12:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NSSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Soloway
SELL
129682 shares
2026-03-02
Richard Soloway
SELL
150000 shares
2026-02-05
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