NSSC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NSSC - Napco Security Technologies, Inc
$40.82
-0.76 (-1.83%)
▼
5d:
-12.63%
30d:
-2.99%
90d:
-6.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NSSC is down 12.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NSSC is down 12.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.41
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NSSC is currently trading at $40.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.17 to $45.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.0) compared to its historical average (28.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSSC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.16, while resistance sits at $47.20.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.33 (+23.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSSC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.16, while resistance sits at $47.20.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.33 (+23.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$41.17 -
$45.79
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.3% below Wall St target ($50.33)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.6% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.17 -
$45.79
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.16
Resistance Level
$47.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.04
Wall Street Target
$50.33
(+23.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.0 vs 28.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.15
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$37.54
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$36.00
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→28)
$40.83
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.0, Growth: 8.7%)
$52.38
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 8.7%)
$45.89
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 8.7%)
$39.01
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$72.38
(+77%)
Analyst growth 58.3%, PE expands to 44.4
Base Case
$65.80
(+61%)
Market implied 58.3%, PE stable at 40.4
Bear Case
$28.27
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.0 to 28.4
Stabilization Target:
$46.29
(+13.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 10, 2026 1:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NSSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Soloway
SELL
129682 shares
2026-03-02
Richard Soloway
SELL
150000 shares
2026-02-05
Stephen M Spinelli
SELL
19000 shares
2025-11-17
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