AER Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AER - Aercap Holdings N.V.
$143.66
-0.87 (-0.60%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 06, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AER shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AER shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$276.68
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$171.80
16.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AER is currently trading at $143.66, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $142.96 to $145.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $141.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $141.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$142.96 -
$145.99
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($152.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$142.96 -
$145.99
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$141.32
Resistance Level
$145.78
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.77
Wall Street Target
$152.33
(+5.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
257.9%
Profit Margin
45.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$145.54
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$146.56
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$147.59
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$145.08
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 60.4%)
$336.05
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 60.4%)
$147.16
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 60.4%)
$125.09
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.95
Bull Case
$110.84
(-23%)
Analyst growth -29.4%, PE expands to 7.5
Base Case
$100.77
(-30%)
Market implied -29.4%, PE stable at 6.8
Bear Case
$97.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AER showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AER Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AER price and gamma walls.
