AL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AL - Air Lease Corporation
$65.00
0.02 (0.03%)
▲
5d:
+0.37%
30d:
+0.74%
90d:
+1.29%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.56
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.03
4.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AL is currently trading at $65.00, which is considered fair based on recent price action. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 80.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
UNKNOWN
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($65.00)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.68
Resistance Level
$65.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.62
Wall Street Target
$65.00
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
80.9%
Profit Margin
36.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.24
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$61.54
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$59.88
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$65.18
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 14.4%)
$262.39
(+304%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 14.4%)
$97.26
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 14.4%)
$82.67
(+27%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$70.76
(+8.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kishore Korde
SELL
20662 shares
2025-12-15
Grant A Levy
SELL
1000 shares
2025-12-15
Steven F Udvar-Hazy
SELL
48632 shares
2025-12-15
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