AESI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AESI - Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.
$14.47
-1.15 (-7.36%)
▼
5d:
-13.04%
30d:
-19.79%
90d:
+18.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AESI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AESI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.00
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AESI is currently trading at $14.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.90 to $17.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 42.2) compared to its historical average (58.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AESI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: AESI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.92 (+37.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AESI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: AESI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.92 (+37.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.90 -
$17.76
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 37.6% below Wall St target ($19.92)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-13.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.90 -
$17.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.22
Resistance Level
$17.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.25
Wall Street Target
$19.92
(+37.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-96.2%
Profit Margin
-9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
42.3 vs 58.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.02
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.72
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.55
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→58)
$14.58
(+1%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 42.2 to 58.4
Stabilization Target:
$20.00
(+38.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 11:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AESI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chris Scholla
SELL
8912 shares
2026-03-06
Gregory M Shepard
SELL
130000 shares
2026-02-18
Gregory M Shepard
SELL
100000 shares
2026-02-17
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