AFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AFG - American Financial Group, Inc.
$130.14
-0.13 (-0.10%)
▼
5d:
+1.66%
30d:
-4.78%
90d:
-0.66%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$207.98
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$129.14
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AFG is currently trading at $130.14, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $129.25 to $136.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $132.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $132.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$129.25 -
$136.43
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($142.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$129.25 -
$136.43
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.09
Resistance Level
$132.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.41
Wall Street Target
$142.20
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$128.84
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$127.55
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$126.27
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$130.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.3%)
$380.01
(+192%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 14.3%)
$194.39
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 14.3%)
$165.23
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.64
Bull Case
$169.58
(+30%)
Analyst growth 18.3%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$154.17
(+19%)
Market implied 18.3%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$88.58
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$134.62
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 9:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is AFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen Craig Lindner Jr
SELL
10000 shares
2025-08-21
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