AGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGI - Alamos Gold Inc. Class A Common Shares
$41.75
-0.79 (-1.86%)
▼
5d:
+3.99%
30d:
-22.96%
90d:
+2.4%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
AGI is down 10.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $55 2026-06-18 with 3,869 OI. Call ratio: 77% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AGI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.7% annual earnings decline despite 396% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AGI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.7% annual earnings decline despite 396% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.05
31.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGI is currently trading at $41.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.09 to $51.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 396.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.71, while resistance sits at $47.13.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.00 (+43.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.71, while resistance sits at $47.13.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.00 (+43.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$42.09 -
$51.75
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.4% below Wall St target ($61.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$42.09 -
$51.75
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.71
Resistance Level
$47.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.89
Wall Street Target
$61.00
(+43.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
396.3%
Profit Margin
49.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 15.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.12
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$37.83
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$35.67
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$42.34
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 28.2%)
$155.59
(+266%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 28.2%)
$89.54
(+111%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 28.2%)
$76.11
(+79%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.10
Bull Case
$64.07
(+60%)
Analyst growth 52.2%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$58.24
(+45%)
Market implied 52.2%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$26.02
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$50.49
(+18.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AGI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AGI price and gamma walls.
