AHL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AHL - Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited
$37.34
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-0.03%
30d:
+0.43%
90d:
+1.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AHL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AHL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.07
17.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AHL is currently trading at $37.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.15 to $37.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AHL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AHL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$37.15 -
$37.34
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.2% growth with 5.0% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.15 -
$37.34
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.21
Resistance Level
$37.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.31
Wall Street Target
$40.63
(+8.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-79.7%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.41
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$37.49
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$37.56
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.50
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 41.8%)
$324.95
(+770%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 41.8%)
$106.56
(+185%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 41.8%)
$90.57
(+143%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.28
Bull Case
$27.34
(-27%)
Analyst growth -18.7%, PE expands to 5.4
Base Case
$24.86
(-33%)
Market implied -18.7%, PE stable at 4.9
Bear Case
$20.79
(-44%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 03, 2026 4:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AHL showing a specific setup today?
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