AII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AII - American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
$18.69
0.02 (0.11%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
9d
Get Alerted When AII Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AII shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AII shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.00
Based on -19.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.72
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AII is currently trading at $18.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.78 to $20.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 48.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.00 (+33.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.00 (+33.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$18.78 -
$20.53
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.9% below Wall St target ($25.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.78 -
$20.53
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.14
Resistance Level
$19.87
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.80
Wall Street Target
$25.00
(+33.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
60.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.6%
Profit Margin
30.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.28
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$17.89
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$17.52
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$18.80
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -43.3%)
$44.62
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: -43.3%)
$13.61
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: -43.3%)
$11.57
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.87
Bull Case
$18.66
(0%)
Analyst growth -29.1%, PE expands to 6.8
Base Case
$16.96
(-9%)
Market implied -29.1%, PE stable at 6.2
Bear Case
$16.26
(-13%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$20.04
(+7.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.3%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:12 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AII showing a specific setup today?
Top Rated Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
ALL
The Allstate Corporation |
STRONG BUY
20 analysts |
$237 | 59 HOLD |
|
TRV
The Travelers Companies … |
HOLD
23 analysts |
$298 | 61 BUY |
|
CB
Chubb Ltd |
HOLD
22 analysts |
$321 | 62 BUY |
|
HIG
Hartford Financial Servi… |
BUY
19 analysts |
$144 | 60 HOLD |
|
PGR
Progressive Corp |
BUY
19 analysts |
$249 | 59 HOLD |
Advanced AII Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AII price and gamma walls.