AII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AII - American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
$19.28
0.02 (0.10%)
▲
5d:
-0.05%
30d:
-8.88%
90d:
-7.62%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.02
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.02
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AII is currently trading at $19.28, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.55 to $20.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.4) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 70.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.75 (+33.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.75 (+33.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$18.55 -
$20.09
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.6% below Wall St target ($25.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.55 -
$20.09
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.52
Resistance Level
$19.72
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.38
Wall Street Target
$25.75
(+33.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
70.1%
Profit Margin
36.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.80
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$18.33
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$17.87
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$19.33
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.7%)
$89.05
(+362%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 9.7%)
$25.42
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 9.7%)
$21.61
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.65
Bull Case
$11.05
(-43%)
Analyst growth -46.5%, PE expands to 3.7
Base Case
$10.04
(-48%)
Market implied -46.5%, PE stable at 3.3
Bear Case
$12.77
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$20.85
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 11:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James E Sowell
SELL
295037 shares
2025-12-05
Robert C Ritchie
SELL
59554 shares
2025-12-05
James E Sowell
SELL
2353200 shares
2025-11-21
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