AIR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AIR - AAR Corp.
$111.37
1.91 (1.74%)
▲
5d:
-6.03%
30d:
-4.68%
90d:
+33.35%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 24, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
AIR is down 3.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $125 2026-05-15 with 60 OI. Call ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AIR is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AIR is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$168.58
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.67
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AIR is currently trading at $111.37, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $105.03 to $116.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.8) is in line with its historical norms (19.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $100.62, while resistance sits at $122.97.
Market Sentiment: AIR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.83 (+13.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $100.62, while resistance sits at $122.97.
Market Sentiment: AIR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.83 (+13.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$105.03 -
$116.23
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AIR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($126.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.0% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$105.03 -
$116.23
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.22
(6.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.62
Resistance Level
$122.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.82
Wall Street Target
$126.83
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.0%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
19.8 vs 19.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$112.60
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$113.83
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$115.09
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$111.50
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.8%)
$190.09
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 14.8%)
$168.55
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 14.8%)
$143.26
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.56
Bull Case
$222.93
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 43.5
Base Case
$202.66
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.6
Bear Case
$68.90
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AIR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sarah Louise Flanagan
SELL
10750 shares
2026-02-04
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
10000 shares
2026-02-03
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
9947 shares
2026-01-14
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Advanced AIR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AIR price and gamma walls.
