AL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AL - Air Lease Corporation
$64.94
0.18 (0.28%)
▲
5d:
+0.37%
30d:
+0.37%
90d:
+1.31%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.56
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.03
4.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AL is currently trading at $64.94, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.61 to $64.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 80.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$64.61 -
$64.85
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($65.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$64.61 -
$64.85
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.55
Resistance Level
$64.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.60
Wall Street Target
$65.00
(+0.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
80.9%
Profit Margin
36.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.82
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$60.93
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$59.10
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$64.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.4%)
$285.10
(+340%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 14.4%)
$96.90
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 14.4%)
$82.36
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.29
Bull Case
$65.22
(+1%)
Analyst growth -8.2%, PE expands to 7.7
Base Case
$59.29
(-8%)
Market implied -8.2%, PE stable at 7.0
Bear Case
$43.93
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$70.76
(+9.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:39 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kishore Korde
SELL
20662 shares
2025-12-15
Grant A Levy
SELL
1000 shares
2025-12-15
Steven F Udvar-Hazy
SELL
48632 shares
2025-12-15
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