ALG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALG - Alamo Group, Inc.
$167.06
-2.94 (-1.73%)
▼
5d:
-0.91%
30d:
-6.15%
90d:
-0.49%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$285.84
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$177.48
5.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALG is currently trading at $167.06, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $159.85 to $197.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $159.12, while resistance sits at $174.00.
Market Sentiment: ALG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $211.40 (+24.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $159.12, while resistance sits at $174.00.
Market Sentiment: ALG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $211.40 (+24.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$159.85 -
$197.66
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
13th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 13th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.4% below Wall St target ($211.40)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$159.85 -
$197.66
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.01
(3.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$159.12
Resistance Level
$174.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.27
Wall Street Target
$211.40
(+24.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-45.0%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$165.41
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$160.94
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$156.60
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$170.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.4%)
$398.86
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 14.4%)
$254.73
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 14.4%)
$216.52
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.60
Bull Case
$243.43
(+46%)
Analyst growth 38.5%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$221.30
(+32%)
Market implied 38.5%, PE stable at 18.6
Bear Case
$108.66
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$184.60
(+8.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 12:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Nina C Grooms
SELL
499 shares
2026-03-11
Robert Paul Hureau
BUY
460 shares
2026-03-09
Robert Paul Hureau
BUY
304 shares
2025-11-26
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