ALG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALG - Alamo Group, Inc.
$195.31
2.29 (1.19%)
▲
5d:
+2.18%
30d:
+14.5%
90d:
+8.35%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$324.24
Based on 12.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$201.33
3.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALG is currently trading at $195.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $177.45 to $194.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $195.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.75 (+12.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $195.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.75 (+12.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$177.45 -
$194.11
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
9th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 9th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($219.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with 4.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$177.45 -
$194.11
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.61
(3.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$187.81
Resistance Level
$195.95
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.34
Wall Street Target
$219.75
(+12.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.9%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$200.58
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$206.00
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$211.56
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$195.46
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 21.2%)
$474.04
(+143%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 21.2%)
$347.43
(+78%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 21.2%)
$295.32
(+51%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.65
Bull Case
$260.04
(+33%)
Analyst growth 23.8%, PE expands to 21.8
Base Case
$236.40
(+21%)
Market implied 23.8%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$129.81
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 02, 2026 4:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffery Allen Leonard
SELL
2500 shares
2025-08-22
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