ALHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALHC - Alignment Healthcare, Inc. Common Stock
$16.56
-1.71 (-9.36%)
▼
5d:
-9.26%
30d:
-20.84%
90d:
-17.41%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ALHC is down 9.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $20 2026-06-18 with 1,199 OI. Call ratio: 90% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.7/10
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1 traders called ALHC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALHC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALHC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.84
24.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALHC is currently trading at $16.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.55 to $21.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.9) compared to its historical average (39.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALHC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.15 (+51.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALHC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.15 (+51.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.55 -
$21.76
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALHC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 51.9% below Wall St target ($25.15)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.55 -
$21.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.18
Resistance Level
$21.12
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.92
Wall Street Target
$25.15
(+51.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.9 vs 39.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.90
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.41
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.07
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→40)
$20.80
(+26%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: 52.1%)
$55.89
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 52.1%)
$53.74
(+225%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 52.1%)
$45.68
(+176%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.9 to 39.5
Stabilization Target:
$28.54
(+72.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+72.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Dawn Christine Maroney
SELL
30000 shares
2026-04-15
John E Kao
SELL
82299 shares
2026-04-13
John E Kao
SELL
215701 shares
2026-04-10
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Advanced ALHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALHC price and gamma walls.
