ALLE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALLE - Allegion Public Limited Company
$165.39
0.93 (0.57%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALLE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALLE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$217.81
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$135.25
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALLE is currently trading at $165.39, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $160.52 to $165.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.7) is in line with its historical norms (18.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $162.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALLE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $162.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALLE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$160.52 -
$165.23
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($181.27)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$160.52 -
$165.23
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$162.22
Resistance Level
$168.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.67
Wall Street Target
$181.27
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
18.7 vs 18.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$166.55
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$167.71
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$168.89
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$165.51
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.2%)
$250.49
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.7, Growth: 8.2%)
$209.76
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 8.2%)
$178.29
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.39
Bull Case
$217.39
(+31%)
Analyst growth 19.8%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$197.63
(+20%)
Market implied 19.8%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$112.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 8:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALLE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy P Eckersley
SELL
10810 shares
2025-08-07
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