ALLE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALLE - Allegion Public Limited Company
$142.89
-1.61 (-1.11%)
▼
5d:
-0.52%
30d:
-11.33%
90d:
-11.13%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
23d
Smart Money Accumulation
ALLE is down 5.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $150 2026-04-17 with 3 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
Get Alerted When ALLE Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALLE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALLE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$222.91
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$138.41
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALLE is currently trading at $142.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.08 to $157.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.2) compared to its historical average (17.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $141.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.55 (+24.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $141.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.55 (+24.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$144.08 -
$157.81
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.3% below Wall St target ($179.55)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$144.08 -
$157.81
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.55
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$141.26
Resistance Level
$148.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.24
Wall Street Target
$179.55
(+24.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Profit Margin
15.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 17.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$137.42
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$130.69
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$124.28
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$144.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.7%)
$265.45
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 7.7%)
$180.60
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 7.7%)
$153.51
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.44
Bull Case
$199.75
(+39%)
Analyst growth 27.4%, PE expands to 21.1
Base Case
$181.59
(+26%)
Market implied 27.4%, PE stable at 19.2
Bear Case
$96.89
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.2 to 17.7
Stabilization Target:
$167.82
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:51 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ALLE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sue Main
BUY
2000 shares
2026-03-11
Steven Mizell
SELL
1000 shares
2026-02-19
Steven Mizell
SELL
400 shares
2026-02-18
Top Rated Security & Protection Services Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Security & Protection Services by analyst ratings.
Advanced ALLE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALLE price and gamma walls.
