ADT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADT - ADT Inc.
$6.83
0.11 (1.64%)
▲
5d:
+8.41%
30d:
+0.59%
90d:
+4.27%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.39
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADT is currently trading at $6.83, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.52 to $6.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.16 (+19.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.16 (+19.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6.52 -
$6.81
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.16)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.52 -
$6.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.24
Resistance Level
$6.87
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.05
Wall Street Target
$8.16
(+19.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.4%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.65
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$6.47
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$6.29
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$6.78
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.0%)
$25.10
(+268%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 6.0%)
$8.13
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 6.0%)
$6.91
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.76
Bull Case
$9.42
(+38%)
Analyst growth 27.4%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$8.56
(+25%)
Market implied 27.4%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$4.57
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$7.36
(+7.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David A Scott
BUY
7300 shares
2026-03-05
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