ADT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADT - ADT Inc.
$6.91
0.07 (1.02%)
▲
5d:
+0.14%
30d:
-1.0%
90d:
-9.55%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.76
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADT is currently trading at $6.91, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.80 to $7.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.1) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.70, while resistance sits at $7.64.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.16 (+18.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.70, while resistance sits at $7.64.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.16 (+18.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$6.80 -
$7.27
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.16)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.80 -
$7.27
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.70
Resistance Level
$7.64
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.14
Wall Street Target
$8.16
(+18.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.4%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.70
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$6.49
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$6.29
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$6.96
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 6.0%)
$25.40
(+268%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 6.0%)
$8.22
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 6.0%)
$6.99
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.76
Bull Case
$9.59
(+39%)
Analyst growth 27.4%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$8.72
(+26%)
Market implied 27.4%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$4.65
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$7.65
(+10.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 3:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David A Scott
BUY
7300 shares
2026-03-05
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