ADT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADT - ADT Inc.
$6.74
-0.10 (-1.46%)
▼
5d:
-16.89%
30d:
-13.26%
90d:
-17.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ADT is down 16.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ADT is down 16.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.96
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.18
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADT is currently trading at $6.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.38 to $8.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.3) compared to its historical average (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.80 (+28.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.80 (+28.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$7.38 -
$8.17
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($8.80)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -16.9% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.38 -
$8.17
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.65
Resistance Level
$8.14
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.26
Wall Street Target
$8.80
(+28.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.9%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 8.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.50
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$6.19
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$5.88
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$6.81
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: 5.4%)
$24.89
(+264%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 5.4%)
$8.00
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 5.4%)
$6.80
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.73
Bull Case
$11.56
(+44%)
Analyst growth 29.6%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$10.51
(+31%)
Market implied 29.6%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$5.51
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$7.91
(+15.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 06, 2026 6:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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