ALNY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALNY - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$338.06
-8.73 (-2.52%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALNY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALNY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$546.98
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$339.63
0.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALNY is currently trading at $338.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $356.70 to $402.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 30.9) compared to its historical average (36.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $336.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $485.76 (+40.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $336.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $485.76 (+40.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$356.70 -
$402.52
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALNY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.1% below Wall St target ($485.76)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.6% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$356.70 -
$402.52
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$336.39
Resistance Level
$376.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.87
Wall Street Target
$485.76
(+40.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
149.3%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.9 vs 36.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$329.45
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$312.98
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$297.33
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→36)
$346.78
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.9, Growth: 134.4%)
$1170.42
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 134.4%)
$845.60
(+144%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 134.4%)
$718.76
(+107%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 48.78 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.93
Bull Case
$408.21
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 51.2
Base Case
$338.06
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 48.8
Bear Case
$258.62
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 43.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.9 to 36.0
Stabilization Target:
$404.47
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALNY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
3022 shares
2025-10-03
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SELL
3821 shares
2025-10-02
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2441 shares
2025-10-02
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Advanced ALNY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALNY price and gamma walls.
