ALNY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALNY - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$315.72
-1.64 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
+2.95%
30d:
-5.17%
90d:
-21.19%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALNY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALNY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$691.44
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$429.33
26.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALNY is currently trading at $315.72, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $313.90 to $331.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.4) compared to its historical average (30.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $299.62, while resistance sits at $332.81.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $449.32 (+41.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $299.62, while resistance sits at $332.81.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $449.32 (+41.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$313.90 -
$331.31
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.6% below Wall St target ($449.32)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$313.90 -
$331.31
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$299.62
Resistance Level
$332.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.35
Wall Street Target
$449.32
(+41.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
84.9%
Profit Margin
8.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 30.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$286.58
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$258.78
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$233.68
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→30)
$317.91
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 53.5%)
$1073.72
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 53.5%)
$1071.09
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 53.5%)
$910.43
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 32.89 | Forward EPS (Implied): $9.32
Bull Case
$370.29
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.5
Base Case
$306.66
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.9
Bear Case
$234.59
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 30.4
Stabilization Target:
$431.76
(+36.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 3:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALNY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pushkal Garg
SELL
1775 shares
2026-03-03
Kevin Joseph Fitzgerald
SELL
1652 shares
2026-03-03
Kevin Joseph Fitzgerald
SELL
1598 shares
2026-03-02
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