ALRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRM - Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$43.67
0.37 (0.85%)
▲
5d:
+1.06%
30d:
-12.87%
90d:
-14.41%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALRM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALRM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.33
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.81
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRM is currently trading at $43.67, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.74 to $48.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (17.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $41.50, while resistance sits at $46.14.
Market Sentiment: ALRM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.00 (+32.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $41.50, while resistance sits at $46.14.
Market Sentiment: ALRM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.00 (+32.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$43.74 -
$48.86
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
6th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 6th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.8% below Wall St target ($58.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$43.74 -
$48.86
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.44
(5.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.50
Resistance Level
$46.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.69
Wall Street Target
$58.00
(+32.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.9%
Profit Margin
13.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 17.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.18
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$38.83
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$36.62
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$43.62
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 6.6%)
$74.07
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 6.6%)
$52.90
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 6.6%)
$44.97
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.46
Bull Case
$58.99
(+31%)
Analyst growth 20.9%, PE expands to 19.8
Base Case
$53.62
(+19%)
Market implied 20.9%, PE stable at 18.0
Bear Case
$30.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 17.5
Stabilization Target:
$52.02
(+19.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 9:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey A Bedell
SELL
22727 shares
2025-12-16
Jeffrey A Bedell
SELL
2273 shares
2025-12-12
Stephen C Evans
SELL
1154 shares
2025-12-12
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