AMBP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMBP - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
$4.05
0.12 (3.05%)
▲
5d:
-2.64%
30d:
-16.49%
90d:
-1.7%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMBP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMBP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.11
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.66
28.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBP is currently trading at $4.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.05 to $4.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.5) compared to its historical average (17.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $3.87, while resistance sits at $4.32. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMBP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.79 (+18.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $3.87, while resistance sits at $4.32. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMBP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.79 (+18.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$4.05 -
$4.65
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($4.79)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$4.05 -
$4.65
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.87
Resistance Level
$4.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.49
Wall Street Target
$4.79
(+18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.0%
Profit Margin
0.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 17.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.75
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$3.47
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$3.21
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→17)
$4.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 20.9%)
$11.84
(+192%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 20.9%)
$7.15
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 20.9%)
$6.08
(+50%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 17.0
Stabilization Target:
$5.10
(+26.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 8:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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