AMPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPH - Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$19.00
-5.03 (-20.93%)
▼
5d:
-13.16%
30d:
-8.96%
90d:
-35.06%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AMPH is down 13.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AMPH is down 13.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.98
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.86
4.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPH is currently trading at $19.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.17 to $22.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.5) compared to its historical average (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.28, while resistance sits at $24.34. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 20.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.86 (+41.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.28, while resistance sits at $24.34. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 20.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.86 (+41.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.17 -
$22.65
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-20.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 41.4% below Wall St target ($26.86)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.17 -
$22.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.28
Resistance Level
$24.35
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.47
Wall Street Target
$26.86
(+41.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-31.0%
Profit Margin
13.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.5 vs 6.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.63
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$16.36
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$15.18
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$18.89
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 8.5%)
$97.48
(+413%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.5, Growth: 8.5%)
$24.29
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.6, Growth: 8.5%)
$20.65
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.03
Bull Case
$45.25
(+138%)
Analyst growth 71.2%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$41.14
(+117%)
Market implied 71.2%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$16.34
(-14%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.5 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$23.63
(+24.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 09, 2026 12:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rong Zhou
SELL
9787 shares
2025-12-17
Floyd F Petersen
SELL
2426 shares
2025-12-12
Floyd F Petersen
SELL
1737 shares
2025-12-11
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