AMPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPH - Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$19.64
-0.46 (-2.29%)
▼
5d:
-6.65%
30d:
+6.45%
90d:
-2.96%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.98
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.86
1.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPH is currently trading at $19.64, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.73 to $20.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.5) is in line with its historical norms (6.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.22, while resistance sits at $22.00.
Market Sentiment: AMPH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+12.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.22, while resistance sits at $22.00.
Market Sentiment: AMPH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+12.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$18.73 -
$20.54
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($22.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.73 -
$20.54
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.22
Resistance Level
$22.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.46
Wall Street Target
$22.00
(+12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-72.5%
Profit Margin
11.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.48
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$19.33
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$19.17
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$19.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.7%)
$102.67
(+423%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: 15.7%)
$30.46
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 15.7%)
$25.89
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.66
Bull Case
$40.49
(+106%)
Analyst growth 83.1%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$36.81
(+87%)
Market implied 83.1%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$13.67
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.5 to 6.6
Stabilization Target:
$20.06
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 11:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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