AMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMR - Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
$179.69
-2.24 (-1.23%)
▼
5d:
-2.4%
30d:
-5.21%
90d:
-3.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
AMR is up 4.1% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $180 2026-06-18 with 47 OI. Put ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$456.22
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$283.28
36.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMR is currently trading at $179.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $183.88 to $198.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.4) compared to its historical average (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $170.01, while resistance sits at $199.32.
Market Sentiment: AMR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (12th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $170.01, while resistance sits at $199.32.
Market Sentiment: AMR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (12th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$183.88 -
$198.66
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
12th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 12th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($194.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$183.88 -
$198.66
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$16.74
(9.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$170.01
Resistance Level
$199.32
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.44
Wall Street Target
$194.50
(+8.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-95.6%
Profit Margin
-1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 8.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$164.60
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$150.77
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$138.11
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$180.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 420.3%)
$2077.42
(+1056%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 420.3%)
$606.45
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 420.3%)
$515.49
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$234.28
(+30.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 12:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
9
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kenneth S Courtis
BUY
8000 shares
2026-03-12
Kenneth S Courtis
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-11
Kenneth S Courtis
BUY
15000 shares
2026-03-10
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Advanced AMR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMR price and gamma walls.
