AMTM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMTM - Amentum Holdings, Inc.
$27.04
0.70 (2.66%)
▲
5d:
+1.88%
30d:
-13.31%
90d:
-6.76%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AMTM is down 3.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $32.5 2026-05-15 with 4,510 OI. Call ratio: 98% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMTM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.0% annual earnings decline despite 264% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMTM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.0% annual earnings decline despite 264% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.06
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.46
11.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMTM is currently trading at $27.04, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.49 to $29.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 264.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMTM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.64 (+35.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMTM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.64 (+35.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$26.49 -
$29.98
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.5% below Wall St target ($36.64)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.49 -
$29.98
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.89
Resistance Level
$27.46
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.82
Wall Street Target
$36.64
(+35.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
264.5%
Profit Margin
0.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 11.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.69
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$24.40
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$23.18
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$27.16
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 14.4%)
$84.90
(+214%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 14.4%)
$40.51
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 14.4%)
$34.43
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 11.16 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.40
Bull Case
$32.29
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$26.74
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$20.46
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$31.68
(+17.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMTM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMTM price and gamma walls.
