AOMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOMR - Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.
$8.97
-0.15 (-1.64%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AOMR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AOMR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.59
15.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOMR is currently trading at $8.97, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.67 to $9.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.8) is in line with its historical norms (6.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.55 (+26.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.55 (+26.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$8.67 -
$9.10
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.6% below Wall St target ($11.55)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with -60.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.67 -
$9.10
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.87
Resistance Level
$9.27
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.77
Wall Street Target
$11.55
(+26.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-60.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.3%
Profit Margin
50.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 6.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.23
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$9.34
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$9.45
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.07
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 124.5%)
$101.36
(+1011%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 124.5%)
$30.78
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 124.5%)
$26.16
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.77
Bull Case
$17.34
(+93%)
Analyst growth 74.9%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$15.76
(+76%)
Market implied 74.9%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$6.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brandon Filson
SELL
50000 shares
2025-09-17
Davidson Kempner Capital…
SELL
595000 shares
2025-08-21
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