AOMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOMR - Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.
$8.30
0.07 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
-0.18%
30d:
-3.99%
90d:
-4.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AOMR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AOMR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.71
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.27
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOMR is currently trading at $8.29, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.21 to $8.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.9) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AOMR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.45 (+39.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AOMR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.45 (+39.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$8.21 -
$8.56
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.3% below Wall St target ($11.45)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.21 -
$8.56
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.96
Resistance Level
$8.53
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.90
Wall Street Target
$11.45
(+39.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-60.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.3%
Profit Margin
72.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.00
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$7.78
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$7.57
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$8.22
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.2%)
$38.36
(+367%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$10.12
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 7.2%)
$8.61
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.80
Bull Case
$6.90
(-17%)
Analyst growth -22.6%, PE expands to 5.0
Base Case
$6.27
(-25%)
Market implied -22.6%, PE stable at 4.5
Bear Case
$5.51
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$8.92
(+8.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 11:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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