ARCB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARCB - ArcBest Corporation
$88.84
3.52 (4.13%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARCB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARCB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$142.62
Based on 13.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.56
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARCB is currently trading at $88.83, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.83 to $90.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (16.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $79.67, while resistance sits at $93.27. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $79.67, while resistance sits at $93.27. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$78.83 -
$90.06
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
19th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 19th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($90.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.4% growth with -1.4% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$78.83 -
$90.06
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.96
(6.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.67
Resistance Level
$93.27
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.40
Wall Street Target
$90.75
(+6.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-59.3%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 16.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$89.06
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$92.98
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$97.07
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$85.46
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 23.8%)
$196.12
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 23.8%)
$161.83
(+90%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 23.8%)
$137.55
(+61%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.21
Bull Case
$105.27
(+23%)
Analyst growth 10.1%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$95.70
(+12%)
Market implied 10.1%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$59.09
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 2:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARCB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ARCB Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARCB price and gamma walls.
