ODFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$217.65
-0.31 (-0.14%)
▼
5d:
-1.12%
30d:
-4.99%
90d:
+9.03%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ODFL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ODFL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$258.39
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$160.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $217.65, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $217.38 to $240.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 34.2) is in line with its historical norms (33.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $215.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $215.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$217.38 -
$240.06
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($224.41)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with -2.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$217.38 -
$240.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$215.90
Resistance Level
$252.03
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.16
Wall Street Target
$224.41
(+3.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.2%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
34.2 vs 33.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$219.83
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$222.02
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$224.25
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→33)
PE COMPRESSION
$217.92
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.2, Growth: 16.5%)
$344.52
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.5%)
$219.64
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 16.5%)
$186.69
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.80
Bull Case
$318.22
(+46%)
Analyst growth 32.7%, PE expands to 50.0
Base Case
$289.29
(+33%)
Market implied 32.7%, PE stable at 45.4
Bear Case
$148.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 4:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Earl E Congdon
SELL
25000 shares
2026-02-26
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
David S Congdon
SELL
52000 shares
2026-02-19
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