ARES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARES - Ares Management Corporation Class A Common Stock
$149.67
-2.02 (-1.33%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARES shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARES shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$320.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$198.73
24.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARES is currently trading at $149.67, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $156.45 to $173.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.1) is in line with its historical norms (25.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 108.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $194.62 (+28.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $194.62 (+28.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$156.45 -
$173.38
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.3% below Wall St target ($194.62)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$156.45 -
$173.38
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.46
Resistance Level
$171.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.07
Wall Street Target
$194.63
(+28.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
46.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
108.8%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.1 vs 25.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$147.44
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$143.31
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$139.30
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→25)
$151.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.1, Growth: 30.4%)
$336.43
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 30.4%)
$325.14
(+114%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 30.4%)
$276.37
(+82%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 22.78 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.57
Bull Case
$180.73
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$149.67
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$114.50
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.1 to 25.1
Stabilization Target:
$165.01
(+8.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.8%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Antony P Ressler
SELL
128837 shares
2025-09-10
Antony P Ressler
SELL
101400 shares
2025-09-09
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Advanced ARES Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARES price and gamma walls.
