ARKO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARKO - ARKO Corp. Common Stock
$6.26
0.66 (11.79%)
▲
5d:
+19.69%
30d:
+40.04%
90d:
+42.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ARKO is 16.1% above fair value ($5.39). Market expects -11.0% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ARKO is 16.1% above fair value ($5.39). Market expects -11.0% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARKO is currently trading at $6.26, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.55 to $5.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 52.2) compared to its historical average (74.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARKO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 11.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARKO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.50 (+35.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARKO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 11.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARKO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.50 (+35.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$4.55 -
$5.39
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
6th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+16.1% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 6th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+11.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 35.8% below Wall St target ($8.50)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 16.1% overvaluation
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$4.55 -
$5.39
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.36
(5.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.03
Resistance Level
$6.27
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
52.17
Wall Street Target
$8.50
(+35.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.9%
Profit Margin
0.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
52.2 vs 74.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.63
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.07
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.56
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 52→74)
$6.47
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 52.2, Growth: -7.7%)
$4.92
(+-21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -7.7%)
$2.10
(-66%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -7.7%)
$1.79
(-71%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 50.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.11
Bull Case
$6.72
(+7%)
Analyst growth 9.1%, PE expands to 56.0
Base Case
$6.11
(-2%)
Market implied 9.1%, PE stable at 50.9
Bear Case
$3.81
(-39%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 43.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 52.2 to 74.0
Stabilization Target:
$8.88
(+41.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.9%
Last updated: February 04, 2026 1:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARKO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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Sells
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NEUTRAL
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