ARLP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLP - Alliance Resource Partners LP
$25.13
-0.14 (-0.55%)
▼
5d:
+1.13%
30d:
-1.64%
90d:
-2.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARLP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARLP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.54
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.04
7.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLP is currently trading at $25.13, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.87 to $26.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.34, while resistance sits at $26.46.
Market Sentiment: ARLP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.33 (+20.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.34, while resistance sits at $26.46.
Market Sentiment: ARLP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.33 (+20.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$24.87 -
$26.68
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($30.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.87 -
$26.68
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.34
Resistance Level
$26.46
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.14
Wall Street Target
$30.33
(+20.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-87.6%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.98
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$24.83
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$24.68
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$25.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 18.7%)
$101.51
(+304%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 18.7%)
$42.03
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 18.7%)
$35.73
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$40.38
(+61%)
Analyst growth 44.7%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$36.71
(+46%)
Market implied 44.7%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$17.24
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$25.58
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
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