ARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARR - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
$17.46
-0.91 (-4.95%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
11d
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1 traders called ARR this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.96
Based on -11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.56
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARR is currently trading at $17.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.71 to $18.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.9) is in line with its historical norms (5.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$17.71 -
$18.65
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.71 -
$18.65
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.39
Resistance Level
$19.31
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.87
Wall Street Target
$18.63
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
126.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Profit Margin
55.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 5.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.61
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$18.85
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$19.10
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.23
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -27.7%)
$69.24
(+277%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: -27.7%)
$18.22
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: -27.7%)
$15.49
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 5.97 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.08
Bull Case
$22.18
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 6.3
Base Case
$18.37
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 6.0
Bear Case
$14.05
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 5.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 2:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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