ASIC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASIC - Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings
$19.77
0.25 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
+5.1%
30d:
-12.98%
90d:
-7.36%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASIC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASIC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.87
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.75
20.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASIC is currently trading at $19.77, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.27 to $22.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.44, while resistance sits at $20.73.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.80 (+35.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.44, while resistance sits at $20.73.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.80 (+35.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$19.27 -
$22.14
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.6% below Wall St target ($26.80)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.27 -
$22.14
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.44
Resistance Level
$20.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.63
Wall Street Target
$26.80
(+35.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Profit Margin
17.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.51
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$19.26
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$19.01
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$19.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 34.7%)
$141.56
(+616%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 34.7%)
$48.32
(+144%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 34.7%)
$41.07
(+108%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$34.93
(+83%)
Analyst growth 64.0%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$31.75
(+67%)
Market implied 64.0%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$13.16
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$20.47
(+3.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 7:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:16 PM
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Is ASIC showing a specific setup today?
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