ASM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASM - Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (Canada)
$6.57
0.21 (3.30%)
▲
5d:
+12.12%
30d:
-11.46%
90d:
-0.3%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -15.5% annual earnings decline despite 126% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -15.5% annual earnings decline despite 126% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.14
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.12
49.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASM is currently trading at $6.57, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.93 to $6.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (13.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 125.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.51, while resistance sits at $7.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ASM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.31 (+72.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.51, while resistance sits at $7.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ASM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.31 (+72.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$5.93 -
$6.99
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 72.2% below Wall St target ($11.31)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.93 -
$6.99
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.52
Resistance Level
$7.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.11
Wall Street Target
$11.31
(+72.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
109.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
125.7%
Profit Margin
32.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 13.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.91
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.32
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.79
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→13)
$7.91
(+20%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 68.8%)
$59.54
(+806%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 68.8%)
$22.17
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 68.8%)
$18.85
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.22
Bull Case
$13.99
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.8
Base Case
$12.72
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.9
Bear Case
$4.32
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 13.4
Stabilization Target:
$10.85
(+65.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+65.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 7:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASM showing a specific setup today?
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