ASM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASM - Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (Canada)
$7.14
-0.52 (-6.79%)
▼
5d:
+3.48%
30d:
-0.83%
90d:
-27.07%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.4% annual earnings decline despite 83% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.4% annual earnings decline despite 83% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.62
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.94
34.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASM is currently trading at $7.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.55 to $7.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (15.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 82.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.20, while resistance sits at $8.19. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ASM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.06 (+44.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.20, while resistance sits at $8.19. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ASM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.06 (+44.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$6.55 -
$7.46
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.4% below Wall St target ($11.06)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.55 -
$7.46
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.20
Resistance Level
$8.19
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.70
Wall Street Target
$11.06
(+44.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
82.9%
Profit Margin
28.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 15.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.25
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$6.86
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$6.48
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$7.66
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 68.8%)
$44.88
(+486%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 68.8%)
$25.85
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 68.8%)
$21.97
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.17
Bull Case
$17.23
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 50.7
Base Case
$15.66
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.1
Bear Case
$5.32
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 15.0
Stabilization Target:
$9.05
(+18.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 4:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASM showing a specific setup today?
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