Is ASML stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ASML is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: ASML shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of ASML stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ASML to be between $1324.67 and $1452.14. The current price is $1253.96.

What is the analyst price target for ASML?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ASML is $1465.05. This implies a potential upside of 16.8% from current levels.

ASML Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ASML - ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC

$1253.96

-48.51 (-3.72%) ▼

5d: -8.44%

30d: -13.55%

90d: +16.99%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Apr 15, 2026 15d

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

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Smart Money Distribution

ASML is up 4.1% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $750 2026-04-17 with 640 OI. Put ratio: 64% View Scanner →

Strength: 3.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ASML shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$1829.15

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$1135.76

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ASML is currently trading at $1253.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1324.67 to $1452.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 33.4) compared to its historical average (40.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ASML is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1254.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.

Market Sentiment: ASML has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1465.05 (+16.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $1324.67 - $1452.14

Company Quality Score 46/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 50.0%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1465.05)
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.4%) - monitor closely

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $1324.67 - $1452.14

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $1254.39

Resistance Level $1413.28

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 33.37

Wall Street Target $1465.05 (+16.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 4.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 7.2%

Profit Margin 29.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 33.4 vs 40.9 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $1171.20 (-7%)

2-Year Target $1093.90 (-13%)

3-Year Target $1021.70 (-19%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 33→41) $1252.07 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 33.4, Growth: 26.5%) $2539.93 (+103%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 26.5%) $1700.91 (+36%)

Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 26.5%) $1445.77 (+15%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 46.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.32

Bull Case $1919.08 (+40%)

Analyst growth 32.4%, PE expands to 51.2

Base Case $1744.62 (+27%)

Market implied 32.4%, PE stable at 46.5

Bear Case $895.73 (-35%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 33.4 to 40.9

Stabilization Target: $1536.69 (+22.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +22.5%

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Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 PM

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ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC

About

ASML is the leader in photolithography systems used in manufacturing semiconductors. Photolithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photo mask onto a semiconductor wafer. The latest technological advances in this segment allow chipmakers to continually increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon, with lithography historically representing a high portion of the cost of making cutting-edge chips. ASML outsources the manufacturing of most of its parts, acting like an assembler. ASML's main clients are TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.

Exchange: XNAS

Market Cap: $389,416,916,894

Employees: 44,127

Listed Since: 1995-03-15

Website: Visit

CIK: 0000937966

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