ASR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASR - Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S.A. de C.V. American Depositary Shares
$324.75
-4.81 (-1.46%)
▼
5d:
+1.56%
30d:
-9.71%
90d:
-1.68%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$590.96
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$366.94
11.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASR is currently trading at $324.75, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $321.21 to $357.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $315.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $366.81 (+13.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $315.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $366.81 (+13.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$321.21 -
$357.52
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
43th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 43th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($366.81)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$321.21 -
$357.52
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$19.07
(5.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$315.29
Resistance Level
$341.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.40
Wall Street Target
$366.81
(+13.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.5%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 14.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$306.89
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$290.01
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$274.06
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$324.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.0%)
$868.22
(+167%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 14.0%)
$481.56
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 14.0%)
$409.33
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $25.27
Bull Case
$362.05
(+13%)
Analyst growth 3.7%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$329.14
(+3%)
Market implied 3.7%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$215.89
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$385.10
(+18.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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