ASTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASTH - Astrana Health Inc. Common Stock
$22.74
0.33 (1.47%)
▲
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ASTH is down 16.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ASTH is down 16.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.37
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.34
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASTH is currently trading at $22.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.33 to $28.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASTH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.50, while resistance sits at $28.75.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.89 (+64.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASTH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.50, while resistance sits at $28.75.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.89 (+64.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$24.33 -
$28.04
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ASTH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 64.6% below Wall St target ($36.89)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -16.3% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.33 -
$28.04
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.50
Resistance Level
$28.75
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.05
Wall Street Target
$36.89
(+64.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
99.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-97.7%
Profit Margin
0.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 10.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.83
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$21.26
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$20.71
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$22.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.4%)
$66.91
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 10.4%)
$30.15
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 10.4%)
$25.63
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.04 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.99
Bull Case
$27.46
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.2
Base Case
$22.74
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$17.40
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$24.31
(+8.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.5%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ASTH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASTH price and gamma walls.
