ATRA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ATRA - Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc
$9.59
-0.89 (-8.49%)
▼
5d:
-3.42%
30d:
+83.02%
90d:
+115.51%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
6d
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10 traders called ATRA this week
75% bullish • 3 bearish
75% bullish • 3 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ATRA is 33.8% above its trading range ($7.17). Market expects -33.9% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ATRA is 33.8% above its trading range ($7.17). Market expects -33.9% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.63
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.95
66.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ATRA is currently trading at $9.59, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.01 to $7.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.9) compared to its historical average (20.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 33.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ATRA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.63, while resistance sits at $12.45. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: ATRA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.67 (+21.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ATRA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.63, while resistance sits at $12.45. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: ATRA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.67 (+21.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.01 -
$7.17
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+33.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.7% below Wall St target ($11.67)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 33.8% overvaluation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.01 -
$7.17
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.63
Resistance Level
$12.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.91
Wall Street Target
$11.67
(+21.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-99.5%
Profit Margin
-40.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-33.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 20.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-33.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.63
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.77
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.99
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→21)
$24.26
(+153%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.57
Bull Case
$6.10
(-42%)
Analyst growth -36.8%, PE expands to 3.8
Base Case
$5.55
(-47%)
Market implied -36.8%, PE stable at 3.4
Bear Case
$5.97
(-43%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 20.5
Stabilization Target:
$33.28
(+247.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+247.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ATRA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
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