AVAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAH - Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$9.10
0.24 (2.71%)
▲
5d:
+7.31%
30d:
+40.65%
90d:
+44.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AVAH is 9.1% above its trading range ($8.34). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AVAH is 9.1% above its trading range ($8.34). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.49
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.75
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAH is currently trading at $9.10, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.76 to $8.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVAH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.05 (+10.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVAH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.05 (+10.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6.76 -
$8.34
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($10.05)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.76 -
$8.34
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.58
Resistance Level
$9.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.82
Wall Street Target
$10.05
(+10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
612.3%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.16
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$9.23
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$9.29
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.12
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$22.26
(+145%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$12.08
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 9.9%)
$10.26
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.21
Bull Case
$6.20
(-32%)
Analyst growth -36.4%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$5.64
(-38%)
Market implied -36.4%, PE stable at 7.3
Bear Case
$6.02
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 10:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Deborah Stewart
SELL
11181 shares
2026-02-19
Patrick A Cunningham
SELL
18436 shares
2026-02-19
Jeff Shaner
SELL
173225 shares
2026-02-19
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