AVAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAH - Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$7.72
0.28 (3.76%)
▲
5d:
+14.54%
30d:
+15.05%
90d:
-2.65%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AVAH is 10.8% above its trading range ($6.97). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AVAH is 10.8% above its trading range ($6.97). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.20
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAH is currently trading at $7.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.40 to $6.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 612.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.42, while resistance sits at $8.04. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.70 (+25.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.42, while resistance sits at $8.04. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.70 (+25.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6.40 -
$6.97
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.6% below Wall St target ($9.70)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.40 -
$6.97
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.42
Resistance Level
$8.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.96
Wall Street Target
$9.70
(+25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
612.3%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.48
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$7.25
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$7.02
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$7.69
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 7.6%)
$19.36
(+151%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 7.6%)
$9.62
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 7.6%)
$8.17
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.05
Bull Case
$5.72
(-26%)
Analyst growth -32.9%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$5.20
(-33%)
Market implied -32.9%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$5.28
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$8.45
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Deborah Stewart
SELL
11181 shares
2026-02-19
Patrick A Cunningham
SELL
18436 shares
2026-02-19
Jeff Shaner
SELL
173225 shares
2026-02-19
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