AVAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAL - GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A.
$5.06
-0.02 (-0.39%)
▼
5d:
-0.78%
30d:
+2.43%
90d:
+15.53%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVAL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVAL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.85
13.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAL is currently trading at $5.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.82 to $5.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.82 -
$5.40
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($4.60)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.5% growth with 19.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.82 -
$5.40
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.91
Resistance Level
$6.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.09
Wall Street Target
$4.60
(-9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.9%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.14
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$5.21
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$5.29
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.06
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 32.6%)
$28.26
(+458%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 32.6%)
$11.80
(+133%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 32.6%)
$10.03
(+98%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.40
Bull Case
$7.77
(+54%)
Analyst growth 39.1%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$7.07
(+40%)
Market implied 39.1%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$3.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 9:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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