AVAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAL - GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A.
$4.01
-0.22 (-5.20%)
▼
5d:
-11.28%
30d:
-15.76%
90d:
-9.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When AVAL Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AVAL is down 11.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AVAL is down 11.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.29
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.53
11.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAL is currently trading at $4.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.31 to $4.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $3.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $3.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.31 -
$4.68
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($4.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.3% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.31 -
$4.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.92
Resistance Level
$4.64
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.44
Wall Street Target
$4.00
(-0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.9%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.82
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$3.64
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$3.47
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$4.01
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.1%)
$18.12
(+352%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 15.1%)
$6.11
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 15.1%)
$5.19
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$6.62
(+65%)
Analyst growth 45.6%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$6.02
(+50%)
Market implied 45.6%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$2.81
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$4.63
(+15.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 10:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AVAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Banks - Regional Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Banks - Regional by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares In… |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$20 | 55 HOLD |
|
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp |
BUY
24 analysts |
$57 | 51 HOLD |
|
MTB
M&T Bank Corporation |
BUY
21 analysts |
$234 | 60 BUY |
|
TFC
Truist Financial Corp |
HOLD
23 analysts |
$56 | 60 HOLD |
|
CFG
Citizens Financial Group… |
BUY
21 analysts |
$73 | 46 HOLD |
