AVAV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAV - AeroVironment, Inc.
$176.97
-7.46 (-4.04%)
▼
5d:
-14.2%
30d:
-29.84%
90d:
-30.6%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 10, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
AVAV is up 3.8% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $280 2026-05-15 with 1,328 OI. Put ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVAV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AVAV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$197.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$122.48
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $176.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $196.97 to $249.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 43.7) compared to its historical average (60.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 175.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $179.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $311.47 (+76.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $179.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $311.47 (+76.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$196.97 -
$249.16
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AVAV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 76.0% below Wall St target ($311.47)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-14.2%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$196.97 -
$249.16
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$179.01
Resistance Level
$222.66
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.68
Wall Street Target
$311.47
(+76.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
143.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.7%
Profit Margin
-13.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
43.7 vs 60.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$159.27
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$143.35
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$129.01
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→60)
$177.82
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.7, Growth: 40.7%)
$492.78
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 40.7%)
$252.17
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 40.7%)
$214.34
(+21%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 43.7 to 60.2
Stabilization Target:
$243.92
(+37.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-03-16
Brian Charles Shackley
SELL
200 shares
2026-03-16
Kevin Patrick Mcdonnell
SELL
396 shares
2026-03-10
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Advanced AVAV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVAV price and gamma walls.
