AVAV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAV - AeroVironment, Inc.
$278.39
-14.83 (-5.06%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 03, 2026
29d
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3 traders called AVAV this week
75% bullish • 1 bearish
75% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVAV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AVAV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$224.34
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$139.29
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $278.39, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $262.50 to $353.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 60.4) is in line with its historical norms (66.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 175.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $276.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $391.44 (+40.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $276.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $391.44 (+40.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$262.50 -
$353.56
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AVAV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 40.6% below Wall St target ($391.44)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.5% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$262.50 -
$353.56
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$276.76
Resistance Level
$408.25
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
60.41
Wall Street Target
$391.44
(+40.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
150.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.7%
Profit Margin
-5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
60.4 vs 66.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$269.20
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$260.32
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$251.73
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 60→67)
$278.75
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 60.4, Growth: 33.4%)
$660.63
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 33.4%)
$243.85
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 33.4%)
$207.27
(-26%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 60.4 to 66.9
Stabilization Target:
$308.28
(+10.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.7%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 2:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Patrick Mcdonnell
SELL
998 shares
2025-10-10
Trace E Stevenson
SELL
1717 shares
2025-10-06
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Advanced AVAV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVAV price and gamma walls.
