AVD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVD - American Vanguard Corporation
$5.08
0.06 (1.20%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.91
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.67
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVD is currently trading at $5.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.78 to $4.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+136.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+136.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$3.78 -
$4.75
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
13th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
Protect Your Profits
AVD is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.9% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 13th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 136.2% below Wall St target ($12.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.3% growth with 0.9% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3.78 -
$4.75
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.54
(10.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.16
Resistance Level
$5.18
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.37
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+136.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.6%
Profit Margin
-21.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.3% premium
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 11.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.40
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$5.74
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$6.10
(+20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.07
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Last updated: February 01, 2026 1:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced AVD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVD price and gamma walls.
