AVD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVD - American Vanguard Corporation
$2.42
-0.01 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
+10.5%
30d:
-47.84%
90d:
-36.65%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -16.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -16.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.91
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.67
34.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVD is currently trading at $2.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.79 to $4.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.4) compared to its historical average (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.05, while resistance sits at $2.74.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+395.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.05, while resistance sits at $2.74.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+395.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$2.79 -
$4.97
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 395.9% below Wall St target ($12.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$2.79 -
$4.97
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.05
Resistance Level
$2.74
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.37
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+395.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.6%
Profit Margin
-9.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 11.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.18
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$1.96
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.76
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→11)
$3.07
(+27%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$4.22
(+74.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+74.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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