AXON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXON - Axon Enterprise, Inc. Common Stock
$483.58
-26.00 (-5.10%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
23d
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3 traders called AXON this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AXON is down 21.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AXON is down 21.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$325.75
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$202.27
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXON is currently trading at $483.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $560.36 to $633.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 67.6) compared to its historical average (78.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXON is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $481.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $815.00 (+59.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXON is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $481.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $815.00 (+59.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$560.36 -
$633.72
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AXON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 59.9% below Wall St target ($815.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -21.1% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$560.36 -
$633.72
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$481.35
Resistance Level
$649.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
67.60
Wall Street Target
$815.00
(+59.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.0%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
67.6 vs 78.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$486.14
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$463.78
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$442.44
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 68→78)
$510.51
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 67.6, Growth: 19.4%)
$867.04
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 19.4%)
$286.02
(-44%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 19.4%)
$243.12
(-52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (78x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (68x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 77.52 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.24
Bull Case
$583.92
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 81.4
Base Case
$483.58
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 77.5
Bear Case
$369.94
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 69.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 67.6 to 78.0
Stabilization Target:
$587.98
(+15.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.4%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Patrick W Smith
SELL
10000 shares
2025-10-07
Brittany Bagley
SELL
5000 shares
2025-09-29
Jennifer H Mak
SELL
77 shares
2025-09-15
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Advanced AXON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AXON price and gamma walls.
