AXON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXON - Axon Enterprise, Inc. Common Stock
$415.07
-14.87 (-3.46%)
▼
5d:
-18.18%
30d:
-23.48%
90d:
-28.91%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AXON is down 12.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $570 2026-04-17 with 658 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AXON is down 18.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AXON is down 18.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$514.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$319.49
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXON is currently trading at $415.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $453.74 to $553.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 39.3) compared to its historical average (65.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXON is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $422.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $735.01 (+77.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXON is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $422.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $735.01 (+77.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$453.74 -
$553.87
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
62th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AXON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 62th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 77.1% below Wall St target ($735.01)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -18.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$453.74 -
$553.87
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$41.80
(10.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$422.03
Resistance Level
$516.43
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.27
Wall Street Target
$735.01
(+77.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
38.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.0%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
39.3 vs 65.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$373.56
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$336.21
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$302.59
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→65)
$503.89
(+21%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.3, Growth: 35.8%)
$1038.37
(+150%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 35.8%)
$590.93
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 35.8%)
$502.29
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (67x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (39x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 66.67 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.61
Bull Case
$612.54
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 70.0
Base Case
$507.28
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 66.7
Bear Case
$388.07
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 60.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 39.3 to 65.4
Stabilization Target:
$691.21
(+66.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+66.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erika Nardini
SELL
198 shares
2026-03-17
Jennifer H Mak
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-02
Isaiah Fields
SELL
2000 shares
2026-02-27
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Advanced AXON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AXON price and gamma walls.
