AXR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXR - AMREP Corporation
$27.07
-0.53 (-1.92%)
▼
5d:
-3.25%
30d:
-2.45%
90d:
+27.75%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 29, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AXR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AXR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.20
Based on -1.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXR is currently trading at $27.07, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.94 to $28.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $26.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $23.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $26.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $23.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$26.94 -
$28.14
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 15.0% above Wall St target ($23.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.94 -
$28.14
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.51
Resistance Level
$28.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.95
Wall Street Target
$23.00
(-15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
93.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
346.2%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.96
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$28.89
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$29.84
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$27.18
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: -6.3%)
$35.46
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: -6.3%)
$22.28
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: -6.3%)
$18.94
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.41
Bull Case
$26.33
(-3%)
Analyst growth -13.3%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$23.94
(-12%)
Market implied -13.3%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$18.77
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 8:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
11
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Timothy S Mcnaney
BUY
1765 shares
2026-04-21
James H Dahl
BUY
1519 shares
2026-04-20
James H Dahl
BUY
1000 shares
2026-04-17
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