AXR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXR - AMREP Corporation
$25.09
-0.33 (-1.30%)
▼
5d:
-3.13%
30d:
+3.08%
90d:
-11.19%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AXR trades at premium valuation expecting 5.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: AXR trades at premium valuation expecting 5.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.89
Based on -5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.87
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXR is currently trading at $25.09, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.87 to $26.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AXR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.00 (+18.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AXR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.00 (+18.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$24.87 -
$26.54
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($30.00)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.3% growth expectation is conservative given 346% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.87 -
$26.54
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.06
Resistance Level
$26.99
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.28
Wall Street Target
$30.00
(+18.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
93.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
346.2%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.3% premium
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 12.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.77
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$28.19
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$29.68
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.36
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -15.6%)
$28.44
(+12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: -15.6%)
$18.53
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: -15.6%)
$15.75
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.41
Bull Case
$20.56
(-19%)
Analyst growth -26.1%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$18.69
(-27%)
Market implied -26.1%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$17.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 4:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
11
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Timothy S Mcnaney
BUY
1765 shares
2026-04-21
James H Dahl
BUY
1519 shares
2026-04-20
James H Dahl
BUY
1000 shares
2026-04-17
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