BFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFC - Bank First Corporation Common Stock
$149.57
-1.74 (-1.15%)
▼
5d:
+1.19%
30d:
+6.9%
90d:
+8.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 17, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$282.45
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$175.38
14.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFC is currently trading at $149.57, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $140.34 to $148.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $142.64, while resistance sits at $154.29.
Market Sentiment: BFC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $142.64, while resistance sits at $154.29.
Market Sentiment: BFC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$140.34 -
$148.69
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($161.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$140.34 -
$148.69
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$142.64
Resistance Level
$154.29
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.43
Wall Street Target
$161.00
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Profit Margin
37.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$147.78
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$146.00
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$144.25
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$149.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.8%)
$472.99
(+216%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 21.8%)
$270.00
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 21.8%)
$229.50
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.18
Bull Case
$278.87
(+86%)
Analyst growth 67.5%, PE expands to 23.2
Base Case
$253.52
(+70%)
Market implied 67.5%, PE stable at 21.1
Bear Case
$102.89
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$155.19
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 08, 2026 6:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Todd A Sprang
BUY
450 shares
2026-04-22
Michael S Stayer-Suprick
BUY
225 shares
2026-04-21
Steven M Eldred
SELL
8000 shares
2026-02-11
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