BGC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BGC - BGC Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$9.11
0.16 (1.79%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BGC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BGC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.72
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.52
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BGC is currently trading at $9.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.84 to $9.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BGC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.50 (+62.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BGC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.50 (+62.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$8.84 -
$9.10
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 62.0% below Wall St target ($14.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.84 -
$9.10
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.84
Resistance Level
$9.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.68
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(+62.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
88.7%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.00
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$9.06
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$9.11
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.00
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.5%)
$44.89
(+402%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 14.5%)
$13.45
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 14.5%)
$11.43
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.33
Bull Case
$19.78
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.0
Base Case
$17.98
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.2
Bear Case
$6.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 6:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Fitzgerald L P Cantor
BUY
8973721 shares
2025-10-06
Howard W Lutnick
SELL
8973721 shares
2025-10-06
Jason W Hauf
SELL
29023 shares
2025-08-21
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