BGC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BGC - BGC Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$9.54
0.14 (1.49%)
▲
5d:
-0.52%
30d:
+0.21%
90d:
+4.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
BGC is down 4.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $11 2026-05-15 with 2,521 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BGC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BGC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.06
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.35
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BGC is currently trading at $9.54, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.33 to $9.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.0) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.50 (+52.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.50 (+52.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$9.33 -
$9.67
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.0% below Wall St target ($14.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.33 -
$9.67
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.30
Resistance Level
$9.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.00
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(+52.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.3%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.35
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$9.16
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$8.98
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$9.58
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.4%)
$50.42
(+429%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: 12.4%)
$13.54
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: 12.4%)
$11.51
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.31
Bull Case
$20.66
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.3
Base Case
$18.78
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.3
Bear Case
$6.39
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$10.18
(+6.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jean-Pierre Aubin
SELL
10000 shares
2026-03-05
Fitzgerald L P Cantor
BUY
8973721 shares
2025-10-06
Howard W Lutnick
SELL
8973721 shares
2025-10-06
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Advanced BGC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BGC price and gamma walls.
