BHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BHP - BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)
$84.72
2.17 (2.63%)
▲
5d:
+7.16%
30d:
+9.7%
90d:
+21.65%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Feb 16, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BHP is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: BHP is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$105.70
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BHP is currently trading at $84.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.55 to $81.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $85.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BHP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $67.07. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $85.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BHP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $67.07. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$74.55 -
$81.45
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BHP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 20.8% above Wall St target ($67.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.55 -
$81.45
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.92
Resistance Level
$85.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.93
Wall Street Target
$67.07
(-20.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.5%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.24
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$87.80
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$89.38
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$84.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 7.3%)
$144.19
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 7.3%)
$104.67
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 7.3%)
$88.97
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.03
Bull Case
$119.87
(+42%)
Analyst growth 32.0%, PE expands to 22.5
Base Case
$108.97
(+29%)
Market implied 32.0%, PE stable at 20.5
Bear Case
$56.13
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 10, 2026 2:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BHP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Josh Gottheimer
SELL
2025-11-19
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