BILI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$23.05
0.16 (0.70%)
▲
5d:
+1.63%
30d:
-16.18%
90d:
-6.26%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BILI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BILI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.79
42.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $23.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.26 to $27.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.5) compared to its historical average (3.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 429.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.51, while resistance sits at $24.88.
Market Sentiment: BILI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.84 (+33.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.51, while resistance sits at $24.88.
Market Sentiment: BILI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.84 (+33.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$23.26 -
$27.71
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.8% below Wall St target ($30.84)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$23.26 -
$27.71
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.51
Resistance Level
$24.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.45
Wall Street Target
$30.84
(+33.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
429.5%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.5 vs 3.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.75
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$18.67
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$16.80
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→4)
$23.99
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 31.8%)
$442.48
(+1820%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.5, Growth: 31.8%)
$52.74
(+129%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.1, Growth: 31.8%)
$44.82
(+95%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.47 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.03
Bull Case
$29.29
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$24.26
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$18.56
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.5 to 3.5
Stabilization Target:
$32.91
(+42.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 11:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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