BILI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$34.04
-1.40 (-3.95%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
19d
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1 traders called BILI this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BILI is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: BILI is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.26
11.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $34.04, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.91 to $33.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 4.5) compared to its historical average (4.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.16, while resistance sits at $36.40. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: BILI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $31.20. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.16, while resistance sits at $36.40. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: BILI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $31.20. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$25.91 -
$33.65
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BILI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BEARISH: Trading 12.0% above Wall St target ($31.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$25.91 -
$33.65
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.16
Resistance Level
$36.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.48
Wall Street Target
$31.20
(-12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
4.5 vs 4.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.68
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$37.96
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$39.29
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$35.08
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 37.3%)
$456.13
(+1187%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.5, Growth: 37.3%)
$91.64
(+159%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.8, Growth: 37.3%)
$77.90
(+120%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 30.86 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.15
Bull Case
$42.79
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 32.4
Base Case
$35.44
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 30.9
Bear Case
$27.11
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 27.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BILI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BILI price and gamma walls.
