BLBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLBD - Blue Bird Corporation Common Stock
$50.31
0.71 (1.43%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.32
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.63
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLBD is currently trading at $50.31, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.69 to $50.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLBD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BLBD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.75 (+28.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLBD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BLBD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.75 (+28.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$47.69 -
$50.48
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.5% below Wall St target ($63.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$47.69 -
$50.48
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.18
(8.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.43
Resistance Level
$50.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.33
Wall Street Target
$63.75
(+28.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.8%
Profit Margin
8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.36
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$47.15
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$45.97
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$49.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.1%)
$150.70
(+204%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 12.1%)
$69.84
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 12.1%)
$59.36
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.88
Bull Case
$67.71
(+35%)
Analyst growth 23.7%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$61.55
(+22%)
Market implied 23.7%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$33.84
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$53.27
(+7.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.4%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Razvan Radulescu
SELL
6709 shares
2025-09-02
Phil Horlock
SELL
13000 shares
2025-08-28
Phil Horlock
SELL
21129 shares
2025-08-18
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Advanced BLBD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BLBD price and gamma walls.
