BMRC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BMRC - Bank of Marin Bancorp
$25.42
-0.19 (-0.74%)
▼
5d:
-2.68%
30d:
-3.2%
90d:
-6.68%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BMRC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BMRC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.33
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BMRC is currently trading at $25.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.61 to $26.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 76.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BMRC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.60 (+12.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BMRC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.60 (+12.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.61 -
$26.51
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.61 -
$26.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.97
Resistance Level
$26.66
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.61
Wall Street Target
$28.60
(+12.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
76.7%
Profit Margin
-90.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.27
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$25.12
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$24.97
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$25.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.1%)
$70.57
(+178%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 10.1%)
$33.94
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 10.1%)
$28.85
(+14%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 10.8
Stabilization Target:
$25.87
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 6:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BMRC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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